Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
